A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
